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finance

finance

this space is for my technical musings

the non-linearity of having kids in quick succession

non-linear effects and negative convexity can be described and explained using different methods. Depending on the method used, a different level of understanding is attained.

"daily standard deviation of 1% moves 1% a day" - not so

In the financial markets, the definition of volatility is assumed to be standard deviation. However, in practice, people seem to either forget the definition or completely substitute it with the mean absolute deviation. For example...

placing high-confidence bets in mediocristan and winning

life in Mediocristan is quite enjoyable. It reminds me of Lawrence Durrell's Alexandria. The ocean is nearby, and the climate is pleasant. Never too cold, never too hot.

shorting stocks based on fragility

shorting stocks based on fragility

On principle, therefore, a small short position is in order. Small because we cannot time markets, and small because it's an expression of a philosophical view, not an attempt to make fuck you money with one trade.

virtue over fortune in investing and other pastimes

since you can't help yourself, then let's use the word "virtue" for the disciplined application of your method, and the word "fortune" for the outcome of your "investments."

what we talk about when we talk about correlation

in day-to-day meetings and coffee chats, no big deal, but when it comes to making investing or hedging decisions, beware.