number 1: ensemble vs. time
a first attempt to disentangle the (on the surface) simple question "what is the expected return?"
3 min read
risk, uncertainty, and error
stray notes from markets, literature, history, and everyday life
Latest posts
what is it like in June 2026?
Macro temperature check. June 12, 2026.
2 min read
portfolio architecture: three sleeves and one refusal
from the abstract to the concrete: portfolio architecture
1 min read
the idler foundational principles
if The Idler were to express his view of the investment world and of the only consonant way to operate within it, he would abide by these Ten Foundational Principles.
2 min read
the idler capital
the most apt name for an investment endeavor.
1 min read
later is now (rediscovering Elliott Smith)
i make my wife and kids listen to Between The Bars
2 min read
wild randomness
an easy to visualize example of wild randomness
1 min read
samuel johnson on parental responsibility
on our moral obligation to ensure our children's well-being.
my grandma and Oracle ($ORCL)
what my grandma and Oracle have in common, and why I'm buying long-dated puts on one of them.
2 min read
when you get too close, you only hear the noise
In the presence of randomness, high-frequency observation obscures signal. Why Djokovic's 55% point wins reveal less than his 88% match record.
1 min read
ethics in opaque worlds (or the mba nerd and consequentialism)
that fact does not make moral reasoning impossible. It changes its character. It means we should be cautious about moral frameworks that depend on precise enumeration of outcomes, and more respectful of constraints that have survived because they may protect society from certain failure modes.
5 min read
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the friction problem
if you don’t inherit friction from the world and are traveling through Extremistan, it may be wise to design your own friction: embrace the beauty of logistics, accept multiple stops along the way, say “no” when in doubt, study the classics.
3 min read
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