number 1: ensemble vs. time
a first attempt to disentangle the (on the surface) simple question "what is the expected return?"
3 min read
risk, uncertainty, and error
stray notes from markets, literature, history, and everyday life
Latest posts
what is it like in June 2026?
Macro temperature check. June 12, 2026.
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portfolio architecture: three sleeves and one refusal
from the abstract to the concrete: portfolio architecture
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the idler foundational principles
if The Idler were to express his view of the investment world and of the only consonant way to operate within it, he would abide by these Ten Foundational Principles.
2 min read
the idler capital
the most apt name for an investment endeavor.
1 min read
later is now (rediscovering Elliott Smith)
i make my wife and kids listen to Between The Bars
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wild randomness
an easy to visualize example of wild randomness
1 min read
samuel johnson on parental responsibility
on our moral obligation to ensure our children's well-being.
when you get too close, you only hear the noise
In the presence of randomness, high-frequency observation obscures signal. Why Djokovic's 55% point wins reveal less than his 88% match record.
1 min read
black blood that kept drippin'
I am no stranger to you. I was born in Troy, and the blood you see is oozing from no tree...
1 min read
guitar frustration and the sphere of the known
one climbs a small mountain just to see oneself surrounded by higher mountains that await our approach
1 min read
virgil is the prince of the poets
in The Aeneid, we find a seamless fluidity that is indifferent to the translator
1 min read